Premier League Betting Tips

The Premier League is one of the biggest football leagues in the world. It commands a massive global audience and whilst is based out of England, it’s one of the most diverse, with players from over 80 countries being represented within the league at some point.

The league has been the pinnacle of the English game since 1992 and has thrived in that time. The most recent television deal, said to be worth over £1.7billion, underlines just how popular the Premier League is and as a result, attracts the best players in the world.

Who Will Win The Premier League?

Last Updated: 5th September 2019
Premier LEague Trophy
UK in Japan- FCO, flickr (cropped)

With the both the domestic and European transfer windows now shut, there will be no more business in the top flight until January. It was a busy summer in terms of transfers, with several clubs splashing the cash on new signings.

After four games it looks very much like a repeat of last season with the best two teams in the land already forging ahead of the chasing pack. We are only a few games in, but Liverpool have already shown their class, picking up four wins on the spin to sit pretty at the top of the table. After pushing Manchester City all the way in the race for the Premier League title last term, will this be Liverpool’s year?

Manchester City – 2/5

Pep Guardiola’s Man City retained the Premier League title last season, pipping Liverpool to the post by just one point. The Citizens were relentless in the latter stages, winning each of their last 14 Premier League matches. Overall, the Citizens won 32 of 38 league fixtures, scoring a staggering 95 goals along the way.

Despite racking up 198 points over the past two seasons, City spent big in the summer, with Joao Cancelo and Rodri arriving for big money. In the other direction, Vincent Kompany a key inspiration on and off the pitch, Danilo and Fabian Delph all moved on.

Man City have started this season with three wins and a draw from four league matches. They also beat Liverpool in the FA Community Shield at Wembley Stadium in early August. City are once again the favourites to win the title, with the bookies pricing them at odds of just 2/5.

Liverpool – 5/2

Man City’s closest title challengers will surely once again be Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men, who don’t play City until November, have started their league season with four wins in a row. The Reds are the only team in England’s top flight with a 100% record at the time of writing. Liverpool also beat Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup final in Istanbul a few weeks back.

Liverpool have had a quiet summer in terms of incoming transfer dealings, while the likes of Simon Mignolet, Alberto Moreno and Daniel Sturridge have been shipped out. Former West Ham United stopper Adrian, who was a free agent, was brought in, and the Spaniard has spent time in the Liverpool goal recently due to Alisson Becker’s unfortunate injury. Liverpool mean business this season, and the Reds are available at the tempting price of 5/2 to win their first ever Premier League crown. If anyone is going to stop Man City, it will surely be Liverpool and it is easy to feel they offer the greater value at more than six times the odds.

Tottenham Hotspur – 40/1

In truth, it’s likely to be a two-horse race between Liverpool and Man City for the title once again, and this is reflected in the odds of the third favourites but Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham Hotspur could play their part.

Spurs were well and truly in the mix in the first half of last season, but a woeful run on the road in the latter months of the campaign put paid to any slim title hopes they harboured. Pochettino’s troops, who reached the UEFA Champions League final last term, have yet to hit their stride this season, picking up just five points from a possible 12.

Tottenham managed to keep hold of Christian Eriksen, who had been heavily linked with a switch away from north London. However, Kieran Trippier, Vincent Jansson and Fernando Llorente did move on. Spurs brought in Tanguy Ndombele, Giovani Lo Celso and Ryan Sessegnon, plus one or two others. Keeping up with the top two will be a tough ask for the Lilywhites, but Spurs are available at 40/1 if you fancy them to cause a huge upset in the title race.

Top Four Finish

Last Updated: 5th September 2019
Champions League Logo on Carpet
katatonia82, Bigstockphoto

The race for the top four in the Premier League could go down to the wire this season. Last term, Chelsea and Tottenham joined Man City and Liverpool in the Champions League. However, with Arsenal and Manchester United spending big this summer, we could be in for one of the tightest top four battles in recent times. City, Liverpool and Spurs are all odds-on to finish in the Champions League places.

Beyond the key contenders there are some who may fancy Leicester, Wolves or Everton to cause an upset. However, with those three priced at odds of 6/1, 40/1 and 12/1 respectively (West Ham are 33/1), it would take a brave punter to look beyond the usual suspects.

Arsenal – 4/5

Arsenal have bolstered their squad with several exciting new players. Dani Ceballos has come in on loan from Real Madrid, Pepe has joined for a club-record fee of £72m, while William Saliba and Kieran Tierney have also arrived for big money.

Meanwhile, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Mohamed Elneny (both on loan) and Nacho Monreal left the Emirates Stadium in last-minute deals. The Gunners have had a mixed start to their season, but they will be targeting a top four finish at the very least. Arsenal are priced at 4/5 to secure Champions League football at the Emirates for next season and as Unai Emery continues to make progress it is easy to see why they are odds-on to return to the big time.

Manchester United – 6/4

After a pretty poor season last time around, Man Utd spent the substantial sum of £145m on new recruits over the summer, as Harry Maguire, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Daniel James all made the switch to Old Trafford in big-money moves.

Fans were left scratching their heads though as the club spent the bulk of their cash on a centre back when they already had six. This strange policy was made to look even odder when United let their only out and out goalscorer leave without replacing him.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Red Devils have made a sluggish start, winning only one of their opening four Premier League matches so far. This is a big season for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and you can get Man Utd at 6/4 to break into the top four. Can United force their way back into the Champions League places? Or might you be more tempted by the odds of 9/1 on Solskjaer to be the next PL boss to be sacked!

Chelsea – 5/2

A lot changed at Stamford Bridge over the summer. Maurizio Sarri – who guided Chelsea to UEFA Europa League glory, an EFL Cup final and a third place finish in the Premier League last season – moved to Juventus, with club legend Frank Lampard taking over. This will no doubt be a tough first season at the Bridge for Lampard, who did well at Derby but is hugely inexperienced as a manager.

The Blues also lost their best player, with Eden Hazard finally completing a switch to Real Madrid. He provided the Pensioners with so many goals, either directly or via assists, and they will really feel his absence.

With a transfer ban also in place, Lampard is having to rely on youth but thankfully he has lots of great youngsters at his disposal. Quite how consistent and how ready for the challenge they are remains to be seen and Chelsea have already dropped some silly points at the start of the campaign, kicking off with a heavy 4-0 defeat at Old Trafford. The Blues could well end up outside of the top four come May, but they are available at 5/2 if you fancy them to finish in the Champions League spots for a second season running.

Leicester City – 6/1

As for the best of the rest, that title could go to Leicester City this season. Brendan Rodgers has hit the ground running at the King Power Stadium, and the Foxes look a very capable outfit these days. Arguably their best bit of business was bringing Youri Tielemans back to the club on a permanent deal from Monaco. Ayoze Perez also moved to the King Power Stadium for a £30m fee from Newcastle United. Leicester have made a strong start, and the Foxes are priced at 6/1 to break into the top four. If Rodgers continues getting the best out of Jamie Vardy, who is scoring freely right now, the Foxes fairy tale could well see another chapter being written.

Everton – 12/1

Like Leicester, Everton also did some good business over the summer. Richarlison stayed put, while Fabian Delph, Moise Kean and Alex Iwobi moved to Goodison Park. The Toffees have been tipped to have a good season, but can they sneak into the top four? At this moment in time, Everton are outsiders at 12/1. They look very short on defensive cover and Kean is very young to be their top striker so a top seven spot looks a more realistic goal. Still, it could be worth keeping an extra eye on Silva’s side this year.

Who Will be Relegated From The Premier League?

Last Updated: 5th September 2019
Dejected Footballer Sat on Pitch

Norwich City, Sheffield United and Aston Villa were the three promoted clubs from the EFL Championship last season, replacing Huddersfield Town, Fulham and Cardiff City. Naturally, those three are among the favourites for the drop, with the likes of Newcastle, Watford, Brighton & Hove Albion and Burnley also in the mix. Which three teams will drop out of the Premier League at the end of this season?

Sheffield United – 6/5

Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United may be the favourites for the drop, but the Blades have made an excellent start to their season. In their last fixture before the first international break of the new campaign, Wilder’s side came from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, which shows the fighting spirit within the team. Can the Blades defy the odds and keep themselves in the Premier League? Wilder increasingly looks like a brilliant manager and he certainly knows how to get the best out of his players.

Norwich City – 5/4

Daniel Farke’s Norwich stormed their way to the Championship title last season, collecting an impressive 94 points along the way. With the prolific Teemu Pukki in the side, the Canaries always look capable of scoring goals. City have been very competitive at the start of the season, but the bookies have them priced at 5/4 to make an instant return to the Championship. Pukki has hammered in five goals already though and if the Finn keeps scoring, the Canaries should have enough to stay up.

Newcastle United – 6/4

Rafa Benitez worked wonders at St James’ Park during his time in Tyneside, but the Spaniard opted to leave the soap opera that is Newcastle United. Steve Bruce, who was managing Sheffield Wednesday in the Championship, took over in the summer. The Magpies have had a mixed bag of results so far, but they did beat Tottenham 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Newcastle did more than enough to keep themselves afloat last season, but can they do the same this time around? Bruce’s boys are priced at 6/4 for the drop and given what a great job Rafa did it seems likely the Magpies faithful are in for a long old season of struggle.

Watford – 11/5

On the whole, Watford had a fine season under Javier Gracia last time around. The Hornets finished in a respectable 11th place in the Premier League, and the club reached the FA Cup final. However, Watford have made a miserable start to this campaign. Before drawing 1-1 with Newcastle at St James’, the Hornets lost all three of their opening Premier League matches. Although it’s unlikely, 11/5 for Watford to be relegated is a decent offer.

Brighton & Hove Albion – 9/4

Brighton survived by the skin of their teeth last season, finishing just two points above relegated Cardiff. Chris Hughton was harshly sacked in the summer, with Graham Potter arriving at the Amex Stadium from Swansea City. The Seagulls could be in another relegation scrap this term, and the bookies have them priced at 9/4. Having said that, Brighton have been playing some nice football this term and they should have enough quality within their ranks to keep themselves up for a third season running.

Burnley – 9/4

Burnley had a strange season last term. After finishing in seventh and qualifying for the Europa League in the 2017-18 campaign, the Clarets were supposed to kick on. However, they struggled, going on to finish just six points above the drop zone in 15th place. Burnley lost 20 times, but three wins on the bounce late on did the business for Sean Dyche’s men. Given they exited the Europa League before the group phase they can’t even blame the Thursday/Sunday schedule either and so it will be interesting to see how they get on this term. The Lancashire club are also available at decent looking odds of 9/4 for the drop.

Premier League Top Goalscorer

Last Updated: 5th September 2019
Footballer Harry Kane Celebrating Scoring a Goal
vverve, Bigstockphoto

It was a fascinating battle for the Golden Boot last season, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah all finishing on 22 goals each to share the award. Those three will be expecting to be in the mix again, while the likes of Harry Kane, Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling could also be in with a shout. Who will finish top of the pile in the race for the Premier League’s Golden Boot in the 2019-20 season and might we see an outsider force themselves into the mix?

Sergio Aguero – 7/2

Man City’s Aguero has been scoring goals for fun since arriving at the Etihad Stadium. However, somewhat surprisingly, the Argentinian ace has only finished top scorer in the Premier League on one occasion, scoring 26 goals in the 2014-15 season. Despite missing chunks of the campaign through injury, Aguero still managed to find the net 21 times last term, finishing one goal behind joint winners Mane, Aubameyang and Salah. At the time of writing, City’s No. 10 is the 7/2 favourite to win the Golden Boot this year and if he stays for he will take some stopping.

Harry Kane – 9/2

In an injury-ravaged season, England skipper Kane netted 17 Premier League goals for Tottenham. When fit and firing on all cylinders, Kane is one of the deadliest strikers in world football and also has the benefit of taking spot kicks for the north London outfit. The 26-year-old finished top scorer in England’s top tier in both 2016 and 2017, scoring 25 and 29 respectively. Kane will no doubt be there or thereabouts in the hunt for the award this season, and the Spurs striker is priced at odds of 9/2 at the time of writing.

Mohamed Salah – 11/2

Since arriving at Anfield, Mo Salah has become an instant hit with the Liverpool fans. In his first year on Merseyside, the Egyptian netted an impressive 32 goals in 36 league appearances. The Reds hitman then finished joint top scorer last term with 22 goals. Salah has already scored three times in four Premier League appearances this season, including a brace in a 3-1 win against Arsenal. At the tempting odds of 11/2, Salah is definitely worth having a punt on.

Raheem Sterling – 6/1

Sterling has quickly become one of the Premier League’s leading marksmen, Pep’s coaching turning him from someone who snatched at chances to a player who now looks very calm in front of goal. The Man City star has hit the ground running at the start of this season, scoring five goals in four Premier League matches thus far. Sterling had a fine season last time around, scoring 17 league goals as Man City retained their crown. Can the England ace win the Golden Boot for the first time this term? Sterling is nicely priced at 6/1 and is still young enough to be able to improve even further.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – 9/1

Arsenal may have missed out on Champions League football, but Aubameyang had an excellent year at the Emirates. In the Gabon international’s first full season in the Premier League, Aubameyang helped himself to 22 goals, sharing the Golden Boot with Liverpool’s Mane and Salah. With Alexandre Lacazette as his strike partner and Pepe also providing firepower, Arsenal’s main man will get plenty of goals this term. The bookies are currently pricing Aubameyang at the big odds of 9/1.

Sadio Mane – 16/1

Mane is getting better and better in a Liverpool shirt. The Senegal international showed real promise during his time at Southampton, but Mane has turned into a world class player at Anfield under the guidance of Klopp. The Reds No. 10, who scored 22 times in the league last season, is available at the big price of 16/1. Mane has netted two Premier League goals so far, as well as scoring twice in Liverpool’s Super Cup win over Chelsea. The 27-year-old could have another fine season in front of goal and 16/1 may well be tempting for an each way nibble.

Jamie Vardy – 20/1

Jamie Vardy has been in stunning form under Rodgers. The former England ace may be 32 now, but Vardy is in the form of his life at the start of this season. The Leicester striker has scored three league goals already, and he’s a 20/1 outsider to be top scorer this term. Last season, Vardy scored 18 Premier League goals to finish as the fifth highest scorer. He could be the dark horse in the race for the Golden Boot this season, with Rodgers playing a style of football that really suits the forward.

When the concept of a breakaway league from that of the English Football League came about in 1992, the name was decided on the FA Premier League. The organisation as actually set up as their own limited company and as a result, started attracting potential sponsorship deals to essentially do what they like with the name.

The first two years that the Premier League was founded, there were no sponsorship deals in place. It wasn’t until 1993 when the first deal was struck, with that of Carling, changing the name to the Carling Premier League.

Carling remained as the headline sponsor for the league from 1993 through until 2001. Whilst the naming rights were put for sale again, it was widely thought that the company wanted to move away from the promotion of alcohol and into something a little more mainstream.

A deal was then struck with that of Barclays bank, who used their sister company, Barclaycard, to promote the league from 2001 through to 2004, before then becoming the FA Barclays Premiership from 2004 to 2007 and later then Barclays Premier League from 2007 to 2016.

In a turn of events in 2016, the FA announced that they would not be seeking a lead sponsor for the brand and instead reverting to simply the Premier League. The idea was to create a clean brand moving forward, much as they do in American sports with the likes of the NFL, NHL and NBA.

Season Format

The league is made up of 20 teams in total and each team play each other both home and away. This will mean that each team will take part in 38 games throughout a single campaign. The games will be run for 90 minutes and 3 points will be awarded for a win, 1 for a draw and none for a loss.

The league is set up in a format that promotes both champions and relegated teams. The winners are that of the team that finishes at the top of the league after 38 games. There will be 3 of the lowest ranked teams in the league that will then be relegated to the Championship. If points are tied, the goal difference will be the deciding factor to sort which teams finish where.

European Qualification

There are several places up for grabs that allow teams from within the Premier League qualifying for the following seasons Champions League and Europa Leagues tournaments. The top four places in the league will qualify for the Champions League. It used to be that 4th place would need to play a play-off game to get their spot, but this has been changed for the 2018 season and onwards.

Qualification for the Europa League is a little less straight forward. In total, the Premier League are allocated 3 slots into the tournament; one for the team finishing 5th, one for the winners of the FA Cup and one for the winners of the League Cup.

But, if teams that have won either of the cups finish within the Champions League places already, then these places will be allocated to 6th and 7th in the league if needed.

Transfer Window

The transfer window is one of the most exciting times for Premier League teams. There are two windows that run from July 1st through to August 31st, then another in the new year, from 1st January to that of the 31st of January. Note that these dates may be extended or reduced by a day or so should they fall on a weekend.

This is the only time that teams are able to make changes to their squads for the whole year. If transfers are made outside of this timeframe, then the players can’t legally move to that club until the window reopens. It’s also worth noting that the Premier League often come down hard on clubs who fail to adhere to this by sorting deals in principle before the window opens, which is commonly referred to as “tapping up”.

Prize Money

As we’ve stated already, the money that is within the Premier League is quite staggering at the minute. To give you an idea of the gulf between the Championship and the Premier League, West Brom, who finished bottom of the Premier League in 2017/18 season, took over almost £94million from their dividend that is distributed by the Premier League. Wolves, who won the Championship in the same year, took a little over £7million.

The prizemoney is broken down into 5 categories:

  • Equal share of payments to each club from sponsors and TV money
  • Facility Fees
  • Merit payment
  • Overseas TV
  • Central commercial

For example, in the 2017/18 season £35,301,989 was paid out to all clubs as part of the equal share of payments that they receive. The facility fees are based on the number of times that they are shown live on UK television. So, the more games they have, the more money they will be entitled for this.

The merit payment is based on where each team finishes in the league. This has the biggest gulf in payments of any of the sectors. For example, Man City who won the league in 2017/18, were paid out over £38million in merit payments, whereas West Brom, who finished bottom, were paid just £1.9million.

Overseas TV money is the money that is brought in from broadcasting rights around the world and central commercial are from sponsorship deals done for the Premier League. These two are both equal payments for all teams throughout the league, something that many of the bigger clubs are actually lobbying against, due to them offering more appeal than some teams.

Key Stats

  • Manchester United are the most decorated team in the Premier League era, with 13 title wins to their name
  • Manchester united have the most consecutive Premier League wins with 3, running from 1998/99 season through to 2000/01 and the 2006/07 season through to 2008/09.
  • The biggest winning Premier League margin is that of 19 points, by Manchester City in 2017/18 season
  • The smallest winning Premier League margin is also Manchester City, winning the 2011/12 season by just goal difference of +8 goals
  • There have only been 6 ever-present teams since the league started in 1992. They are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur
  • Only 3 teams have avoided relegation from the Premier League after being bottom at Christmas. West Bromwich Albion (2004/05), Sunderland (2013/14) and Leicester City (2014/15)
  • Manchester City have scored the most Premier League goals in a single season in 2017/18, with 106 goals in total
  • The fewest was that of Derby County, with just 20 goals in the 2007/08 season
  • The highest scoring match came about in 2007, when Portsmouth beat reading 7-4.
  • The most decorated player in the Premier League history is that of Ryan Giggs, with 13 league titles, all for Manchester United.
  • Brian Dene scored the first ever Premier League goal playing for Sheffield United against Manchester United on 15th August, 1992.
  • Alan Shearer has scored the most Premier League goals, with 260
  • Gareth Barry has the most Premier League appearances, with 635
  • Ryan Giggs has the most Premier League assists, with 162

The History of the Premier League

The foundations of the Premier League were set about in 1992 by that of Greg Dyke. At the time Dyke was a managing director for a London television studio and it was his idea that a breakaway league, running as a separate entity to that of the Football League, could be massively beneficial for the elite clubs.

After many meetings, Dyke was eventually able to get the likes of the “Big Five” on board, which included Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton and Arsenal, who then agreed to form this breakaway league.

It was Dyke’s vision to get more games of the bigger clubs on national television, which would in turn allow the league to make more money through sponsorship deals and advertising. But, the whole deal was based on the pretences that the Football Association were willing to back to the deal. As they already held a rather frosty relationship with the English Football League, the backing was granted.

The first of the TV deals was headhunted by that of Dyke and his team, before securing a five-year deal with BskyB and a highlights package with BBC, for a fee reported to be worth around £304million.

The format of the league remained the same in that the teams that were in the old 1st Division were essentially invited into the Premier League, initially with 22 teams, before this number reduced to the 20 teams that we see today.