Premier League Betting Tips

The Premier League is one of the biggest football leagues in the world. It commands a massive global audience and whilst is based out of England, it’s one of the most diverse, with players from over 80 countries being represented within the league at some point.

The league has been the pinnacle of the English game since 1992 and has thrived in that time. The most recent television deal, said to be worth over £1.7billion, underlines just how popular the Premier League is and as a result, attracts the best players in the world.

Who Will Win The Premier League?

Last Updated: 4th February 2020
Premier LEague Trophy
UK in Japan- FCO, flickr (cropped)

Last season, Manchester City and Liverpool were involved in the most incredible title race in Premier League history. Despite picking up a staggering 97 points, Jurgen Klopp’s Reds missed out on the trophy by just a point. Pep Guardiola’s men retained their crown, accumulating 98 points along the way. However, it could not be more different this term, as Liverpool are running away with the Premier League and look set to seal the deal in record time.

It’s been a quiet transfer window, or at least it has seemed that way. PL clubs spent around £240m, with 31 permanent deals struck to bring players to the top flight. The fact that £240m seems like a quiet window says a lot about the Premier League and, in fact, clubs spent more than £80m more than they did in the winter window 12 months ago. Man United and Spurs were the big spenders but how will the latest window affect the key PL battles over the remainder of the season?

Liverpool – 1/100

Liverpool have had a remarkable campaign so far, winning 24 of 25 matches. At the time of writing, the Merseyside outfit are a staggering 22 points clear at the top. The Reds have dropped just two points, winning each of their following 16 after drawing 1-1 with rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford in October.

The Reds have been faultless at home, as they have a 100% record at Anfield. Klopp certainly had the winning formula last season, despite missing out on the title, but they are on a different level these days. Liverpool have the perfect blend of quality and experience, and Takumi Minamino – who arrived on a £7.2m deal from Red Bull Salzburg – was mainly brought in for cover. In truth, Liverpool look unstoppable, and they may well be for the foreseeable future.

Manchester City – 250/1

Man City have had a few years to remember under Pep Guardiola. City are well behind Liverpool at present, but they were the unstoppable force not so long ago. In fact, before this term, the Manchester club had racked up a whopping 198 points in two campaigns. However, they are currently priced at 250/1 with some bookies to win the title this year, with even Pep conceding defeat to Liverpool months ago. They made no new additions but a fully fit Aymeric Laporte would be a huge boost for the rest of the season.

And of course, Man City still have an awful lot to play for this campaign. The Citizens have reached a third successive Carabao Cup final, while they are still in the Emirates FA Cup and the UEFA Champions League. Finishing second will be the priority for City, and they available at 1/12 for a top two finish. Guardiola will rebuild his talented squad in the summer to compete with Klopp’s troops next season, as they have been well off Liverpool’s relentless pace this time around. City have been unable to deal with defensive issues and injuries and at times unable to convert possession into wins.

Leicester City – 2500/1

Brendan Rodgers has done an extraordinary job at Leicester City since his arrival from Celtic a year ago. The Foxes are currently in third spot in the Premier League table, a whopping 12 points above fifth place. The Premier League title is out of reach, with the Foxes priced at 2500/1, but Leicester look nailed on for a Champions League spot. Rodgers recruited superbly well in the summer, with the likes of Ayoze Perez, Youri Tielemans and Dennis Praet joining the club. Leicester are without doubt a team on the up and fans will have been delighted they kept all of their best players during the latest transfer window.

Not many people would have had the Foxes down as top four candidates, but Rodgers deserves an enormous amount of credit for keeping the bigger clubs out of the Champions League places. For as long as Rodgers stays at the King Power Stadium, Leicester will always be a force to reckoned with in the Premier League.

Top Four Finish

Last Updated: 4th February 2020
Champions League Logo on Carpet
katatonia82, Bigstockphoto

The race for the top four in the Premier League could go down to the wire this season. Of course, Liverpool and Man City are there, while Leicester (1/14) have put themselves in a great position. At the moment, Chelsea are holding on to fourth spot, but Frank Lampard’s men look vulnerable. Who will join Liverpool, Man City and Leicester in next season’s Champions League?

Chelsea – 4/7

On the whole, Frank Lampard – who joined Stamford Bridge from Derby County in the summer – has had an excellent first season at Chelsea as a manager. The Blues legend has plenty to work on, but with a transfer embargo and a squad full of youth players, the ex-England midfielder has done an outstanding job in west London so far. Chelsea are currently four points above Tottenham, but their form has been up and down at times. The Blues will be hard to unseat in the race for the top four, though.

Tottenham Hotspur – 3/1

It’s been a topsy-turvy season for all involved with Tottenham Hotspur. Mauricio Pochettino failed to build on last season’s Champions League final appearance, and the popular Argentinian was sacked in November after a shocking run of results. Former Chelsea and Man Utd boss Jose Mourinho was quickly appointed Pochettino’s successor at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Jose has had a patchy run of results, but the January signings of Steven Bergwijn and Gedson Fernandes could be crucial in the race for the top four. It might be worth backing Tottenham at 3/1, with Mourinho rarely failing to have an impact in his first season at a new club.

Manchester United – 8/1

Despite losing a couple of their key attacking players in the summer there was loads of expectation and optimism at the beginning of the Premier League season for Manchester United, but a sluggish start (two wins from their opening nine) put paid to any unrealistic title hopes. Instead, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s boys will do well to finish in the top six. The January signing of Bruno Fernandes could turn out to be a good bit of business, but the Red Devils still look very thin on the ground in terms of quality, especially with the injury problems they have up front. United are currently priced at 8/1 for a top four finish but that looks far too short to us.

Wolverhampton Wanderers – 10/1

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have responded expertly well after a woeful start. Wolves, who are playing in the UEFA Europa League this term, kicked off their Premier League campaign with two wins from 11. However, Wanderers have had a real turnaround in fortunes over the last few months. A Champions League spot (10/1) may be a tall order, but the Midlands outfit are definitely heading in the right direction under boss Nuno and should have enough to secure European football once again.

Arsenal – 40/1

Who would have thought Arsenal would be outsiders for a top four spot in February? After a woeful season so far, the Gunners are currently priced at 40/1 to reach the Champions League via the Premier League route. Of course, they will be looking to win the Europa League, but the Arsenal fans would have hoped for a top four finish before a ball was kicked this season. Even at 40/1, it’s not worth backing Arsenal to trouble the Champions League places, with the Europa League probably offering them a better chance of a seat at the top table next term.

Who Will be Relegated From The Premier League?

Last Updated: 4th February 2020
Dejected Footballer Sat on Pitch

Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United have proved everyone wrong this term. Despite making very few notable signings in the summer, the Blades have spent practically all season in the top half of the Premier League table. At this moment in time, United are flying high in sixth and added talented midfielder Sander Berge in the window.

As for Aston Villa and Norwich City – who joined Sheffield United in the top flight – they are both well and truly embroiled in a relegation scrap. The fight for Premier League survival is yet again set to be thrilling but who will do enough between now and May?

Norwich City – 1/10

Daniel Farke’s Norwich City have found it tough going in the Premier League so far this term. The Canaries, who won the EFL Championship last term, have spent most of their campaign in the bottom three and are currently seven points adrift of safety. Norwich look nailed on for an instant return to the second tier and may be a decent bet even at odds of just 1/10.

Aston Villa – 10/11

Another promoted club who have had a difficult time this season are Aston Villa. Although they have coped better than Norwich, the Villans still have plenty of work to do to ensure Premier League survival. Villa have reached the Carabao Cup final – where they will face holders Man City at Wembley Stadium – but staying in the Premier League will be the number one priority for Smith and the club. You can get Aston Villa at 10/11 to be relegated and that could be a good bet if the EFL Cup proves a distraction.

West Ham United – 11/8

Back in the summer, West Ham United will have been hoping for a top half finish at the very least and possibly even have believed they could push for a top four spot. However, despite a decent start, the Hammers have had a horrid time thus far, with Manuel Pellegrini sacked and replaced by the familiar face of David Moyes at the end of 2019. The appointment has not had the desired effect, though, as West Ham are in the bottom three. The London club are priced at just 11/8 for relegation.

Bournemouth – 11/8

Bournemouth have also had a difficult season up until now. Eddie Howe has done a remarkable job at the Vitality Stadium over the years, turning the small club into an established Premier League outfit, but the Cherries are living dangerously close to the edge this season. However, a couple of wins lately have eased the pressure somewhat. Like West Ham, Bournemouth are also available at 11/8 for the drop but Howe’s undoubted talent should see them safe.

Watford – 6/4

Watford looked doomed before Nigel Pearson arrived on the scene at Vicarage Road. The former Leicester City boss started life in Hertfordshire in terrific fashion, but Watford have slipped down the table again. On paper, the Hornets have a very talented squad, but more than just talent is needed to survive in the Premier League. You can get 6/4 for Watford to be relegated and that might prove a great bet if the Pearson-effect proves to be nothing more than a short-term bounce.

Brighton & Hove Albion – 7/2

Under Chris Hughton last season, Brighton & Hove Albion survived by the skin of their teeth, finishing just two points above relegated Cardiff City. Graham Potter took over from Hughton in the summer, and the ex-Swansea City boss has done a good job at the Amex Stadium so far, winning a lot of plaudits for the football his team has produced at times. The Seagulls have played some lovely stuff this season, and they should be just fine. Still, 7/2 is a very tempting price.

Premier League Top Goalscorer

Last Updated: 4th February 2020
Footballer Harry Kane Celebrating Scoring a Goal
vverve, Bigstockphoto

It was a fascinating battle for the Golden Boot last season, with Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Liverpool duo Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah all finishing on 22 goals each to share the award. Somewhat surprisingly, Leicester’s evergreen rascal Jamie Vardy currently leads the way in the race for the Golden Boot, with City’s Sergio Aguero following him closely behind. The likes of Salah, Aubameyang and Danny Ings are also in with a shout.

Sergio Aguero (Manchester City) – 7/4

Man City’s Sergio Aguero has had another superb season in front of goal for the champions as he continues to cement his place in the annuls of all-time PL greats. The Argentina international has helped himself to 16 Premier League goals in 1175 minutes of football, which is a stunning ratio. Incredibly, Aguero has only been Golden Boot winner once since arriving at the Etihad Stadium back in 2011. The 31-year-old is the current favourite at 7/4, despite having a bit of ground to make up on Vardy.

Jamie Vardy (Leicester City) – 9/4

Jamie Vardy is getting better with age, as the ex-England international is in the form of his life at the grand old age of 33. The Leicester ace has had an astonishing campaign for the Foxes, netting 17 goals to fire them, for a while at least, into the title race. Vardy is currently top of the pile, one ahead of Aguero. Can the veteran continue his fine goalscoring form and win the Premier League Golden Boot (9/4) for the first time in his career?

Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) – 5/1

Since arriving on Merseyside, Mohamed Salah has become a huge hit with the Liverpool fans. In his first year at Anfield, the Egyptian ace netted an impressive 32 goals in 36 league appearances. Salah then finished joint top scorer with Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang last term with 22 goals to his name. The 27-year-old has netted 14 times for Liverpool so far this season, with three of those coming in his last two appearances. There’s certainly good value in 5/1 if the Reds continue their charge to the title.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal) – 12/1

Arsenal have had a poor season in the Premier League to this point. However, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been a bright spark at the Emirates Stadium once again, scoring an impressive 14 league goals in a very average Arsenal side. At the moment, the Gabon international is tied with Salah, Marcus Rashford and Danny Ings, while Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham is just one behind. Aubameyang, who is available at 12/1, is only three goals behind leader Vardy and with the Gunners likely to improve under Mikel Arteta, Auba may well be the best value of them all.

Danny Ings (Southampton) – 16/1

Danny Ings is in the form of his life at St Mary’s and pushing for an England place once again after a period in the wilderness. The striker has always had the potential, but Saints boss Ralph Hasenhuttl is getting the best out of the 27-year-old. The former Liverpool man has helped himself to 14 Premier League goals so far. Ings is an outsider at 16/1, but he’s absolutely worth keeping an eye on in the race to be the Premier League’s top scorer this season.

When the concept of a breakaway league from that of the English Football League came about in 1992, the name was decided on the FA Premier League. The organisation as actually set up as their own limited company and as a result, started attracting potential sponsorship deals to essentially do what they like with the name.

The first two years that the Premier League was founded, there were no sponsorship deals in place. It wasn’t until 1993 when the first deal was struck, with that of Carling, changing the name to the Carling Premier League.

Carling remained as the headline sponsor for the league from 1993 through until 2001. Whilst the naming rights were put for sale again, it was widely thought that the company wanted to move away from the promotion of alcohol and into something a little more mainstream.

A deal was then struck with that of Barclays bank, who used their sister company, Barclaycard, to promote the league from 2001 through to 2004, before then becoming the FA Barclays Premiership from 2004 to 2007 and later then Barclays Premier League from 2007 to 2016.

In a turn of events in 2016, the FA announced that they would not be seeking a lead sponsor for the brand and instead reverting to simply the Premier League. The idea was to create a clean brand moving forward, much as they do in American sports with the likes of the NFL, NHL and NBA.

Season Format

The league is made up of 20 teams in total and each team play each other both home and away. This will mean that each team will take part in 38 games throughout a single campaign. The games will be run for 90 minutes and 3 points will be awarded for a win, 1 for a draw and none for a loss.

The league is set up in a format that promotes both champions and relegated teams. The winners are that of the team that finishes at the top of the league after 38 games. There will be 3 of the lowest ranked teams in the league that will then be relegated to the Championship. If points are tied, the goal difference will be the deciding factor to sort which teams finish where.

European Qualification

There are several places up for grabs that allow teams from within the Premier League qualifying for the following seasons Champions League and Europa Leagues tournaments. The top four places in the league will qualify for the Champions League. It used to be that 4th place would need to play a play-off game to get their spot, but this has been changed for the 2018 season and onwards.

Qualification for the Europa League is a little less straight forward. In total, the Premier League are allocated 3 slots into the tournament; one for the team finishing 5th, one for the winners of the FA Cup and one for the winners of the League Cup.

But, if teams that have won either of the cups finish within the Champions League places already, then these places will be allocated to 6th and 7th in the league if needed.

Transfer Window

The transfer window is one of the most exciting times for Premier League teams. There are two windows that run from July 1st through to August 31st, then another in the new year, from 1st January to that of the 31st of January. Note that these dates may be extended or reduced by a day or so should they fall on a weekend.

This is the only time that teams are able to make changes to their squads for the whole year. If transfers are made outside of this timeframe, then the players can’t legally move to that club until the window reopens. It’s also worth noting that the Premier League often come down hard on clubs who fail to adhere to this by sorting deals in principle before the window opens, which is commonly referred to as “tapping up”.

Prize Money

As we’ve stated already, the money that is within the Premier League is quite staggering at the minute. To give you an idea of the gulf between the Championship and the Premier League, West Brom, who finished bottom of the Premier League in 2017/18 season, took over almost £94million from their dividend that is distributed by the Premier League. Wolves, who won the Championship in the same year, took a little over £7million.

The prizemoney is broken down into 5 categories:

  • Equal share of payments to each club from sponsors and TV money
  • Facility Fees
  • Merit payment
  • Overseas TV
  • Central commercial

For example, in the 2017/18 season £35,301,989 was paid out to all clubs as part of the equal share of payments that they receive. The facility fees are based on the number of times that they are shown live on UK television. So, the more games they have, the more money they will be entitled for this.

The merit payment is based on where each team finishes in the league. This has the biggest gulf in payments of any of the sectors. For example, Man City who won the league in 2017/18, were paid out over £38million in merit payments, whereas West Brom, who finished bottom, were paid just £1.9million.

Overseas TV money is the money that is brought in from broadcasting rights around the world and central commercial are from sponsorship deals done for the Premier League. These two are both equal payments for all teams throughout the league, something that many of the bigger clubs are actually lobbying against, due to them offering more appeal than some teams.

Key Stats

  • Manchester United are the most decorated team in the Premier League era, with 13 title wins to their name
  • Manchester united have the most consecutive Premier League wins with 3, running from 1998/99 season through to 2000/01 and the 2006/07 season through to 2008/09.
  • The biggest winning Premier League margin is that of 19 points, by Manchester City in 2017/18 season
  • The smallest winning Premier League margin is also Manchester City, winning the 2011/12 season by just goal difference of +8 goals
  • There have only been 6 ever-present teams since the league started in 1992. They are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur
  • Only 3 teams have avoided relegation from the Premier League after being bottom at Christmas. West Bromwich Albion (2004/05), Sunderland (2013/14) and Leicester City (2014/15)
  • Manchester City have scored the most Premier League goals in a single season in 2017/18, with 106 goals in total
  • The fewest was that of Derby County, with just 20 goals in the 2007/08 season
  • The highest scoring match came about in 2007, when Portsmouth beat reading 7-4.
  • The most decorated player in the Premier League history is that of Ryan Giggs, with 13 league titles, all for Manchester United.
  • Brian Dene scored the first ever Premier League goal playing for Sheffield United against Manchester United on 15th August, 1992.
  • Alan Shearer has scored the most Premier League goals, with 260
  • Gareth Barry has the most Premier League appearances, with 635
  • Ryan Giggs has the most Premier League assists, with 162

The History of the Premier League

The foundations of the Premier League were set about in 1992 by that of Greg Dyke. At the time Dyke was a managing director for a London television studio and it was his idea that a breakaway league, running as a separate entity to that of the Football League, could be massively beneficial for the elite clubs.

After many meetings, Dyke was eventually able to get the likes of the “Big Five” on board, which included Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton and Arsenal, who then agreed to form this breakaway league.

It was Dyke’s vision to get more games of the bigger clubs on national television, which would in turn allow the league to make more money through sponsorship deals and advertising. But, the whole deal was based on the pretences that the Football Association were willing to back to the deal. As they already held a rather frosty relationship with the English Football League, the backing was granted.

The first of the TV deals was headhunted by that of Dyke and his team, before securing a five-year deal with BskyB and a highlights package with BBC, for a fee reported to be worth around £304million.

The format of the league remained the same in that the teams that were in the old 1st Division were essentially invited into the Premier League, initially with 22 teams, before this number reduced to the 20 teams that we see today.