Premier League Betting Tips

The Premier League is one of the biggest football leagues in the world. It commands a massive global audience and whilst is based out of England, it’s one of the most diverse, with players from over 80 countries being represented within the league at some point.

The league has been the pinnacle of the English game since 1992 and has thrived in that time. The most recent television deal, said to be worth over £1.7billion, underlines just how popular the Premier League is and as a result, attracts the best players in the world.

Who Will Win The Premier League?

Last Updated: 9th July 2019
Premier LEague Trophy
UK in Japan- FCO, flickr (cropped)

Having only recently recovered from one exhilarating Premier League campaign, the start of the eagerly anticipated 2019-20 season is just around the corner, with Liverpool and Norwich City kicking off the new season on August 9th. Jurgen Klopp’s Reds and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City were involved in a thrilling title race last term, as City just pipped Liverpool to the post by a single point. Will these two be top dogs again, or can Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, Chelsea or Arsenal cause an upset in the title race?

Meanwhile, how will Norwich City, Sheffield United and Aston Villa fare after gaining promotion from the EFL Championship last season? We have the latest odds on the title, top four, relegation and top goalscorer in this in-depth Premier League betting preview.

Manchester City – 4/6

Man City have without doubt been the best team in England over the last couple of years, although they were pushed extremely close by Liverpool in the title race last season. Pep’s men won 32 of their 38 Premier League games to finish on a staggering 98 points, one point ahead of the Merseyside outfit. Along the way, City scored 95 times and shipped just 23 goals.

As expected, Guardiola’s troops are the bookies’ favourites yet again, available at just 4/6 to claim their third successive PL crown. Even though Man City have accumulated 198 points over the last two seasons, they have spent big money again this summer. The talented Rodri has made the switch to the Etihad Stadium from Atletico Madrid for £68.2m, while Angelino has rejoined on a £5.3m deal from PSV Eindhoven. Meanwhile, the popular Vincent Kompany has left to take over as player-manager of Anderlecht. The Premier League champions will fancy their chances of winning a third title in a row this season.

Liverpool – 9/4

Klopp’s Liverpool had an outstanding 2018-19 season, winning the UEFA Champions League final in Madrid at the end. Meanwhile, the Reds picked up a staggering 97 points to finish runners-up to Man City in the Premier League, securing 30 wins and losing only once in the process. City may well be the favourites again, but Liverpool are available at just 5/2 to win their first ever Premier League title.

Klopp will be hoping to bring in a few new faces before the window slams shut in August. However, with the likes of Mohamed Salah, Alisson, Virgil van Dijk, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane in the team, the Reds already have a super talented squad. Liverpool will want to push City all the way again this year, and they are more than capable of doing so.

Tottenham Hotspur – 16/1

For the first few months of last season, Tottenham were hot on the heels of Man City and Liverpool. Unfortunately for them, one point from a possible 15 from February to late March put paid to any slim title hopes. Spurs went on to finish in fourth place on 71 points, a whopping 27 points behind eventual champions Man City. Mauricio Pochettino’s Lilywhites are available at 16/1 to win the league, while you can currently get them at 1/2 to finish in the Champions League spots.

Tottenham really come of age on the European stage last season, reaching the Champions League final in Madrid. The Londoners may have lost to Premier league rivals Liverpool in the Wanda Metropolitano, but they made even more progress under the brilliant Pochettino. Tottenham mean business this season after smashing their transfer record by bringing in Tanguy Ndombele from Lyon. It will be very interesting to see how they get on in their new stadium this season.

Chelsea – 25/1

Chelsea are banned from buying players for the next two transfer windows, but the club have brought back club legend Frank Lampard, who has taken over from Maurizio Sarri as the new Blues boss. After a successful season at Derby County in the Championship last term – as the Rams just missed out on promotion by narrowly losing the play-off final to Aston Villa – Lampard jumped at the chance of returning to Stamford Bridge. All eyes will be on the former England midfielder when his side take on Man United at Old Trafford on the opening weekend.

Last season, Sarri guided the Blues to UEFA Europa League glory, and they reached the Carabao Cup final, eventually losing out to Man City on penalties. Having finished in third place in the league, it turned out to be a very successful season for the London club. Replicating that will be a tall order for Chelsea but finishing in the top four will be number one priority. Lampard’s boys are priced at 25/1 to win the league and 5/4 to finish in the top four.

Manchester United – 25/1

After a woeful campaign (by their historical standards) last term, Man United will be looking to put things right this time around. The Red Devils finished in sixth spot, a staggering 33 points behind neighbours and rivals City. United won just 50% of their league matches, losing 10 times along the way. With Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at the helm on a permanent basis, the bookies have them priced at 25/1 to win their first Premier League title since 2013. The Manchester side are available at 11/10 to finish in the top four, meanwhile.

The Red Devils have brought in youngsters Daniel James and Aaron Wan-Bissaka for a combined total of £65m, but the likes of Paul Pogba and Romelu Lukaku could be heading for the exit door at Old Trafford. The popular Ander Herrera has departed the club, moving to Paris Saint-Germain on a free. Can Ole bring the good days back to the Theatre of Dreams, or will it be more misery for the suffering United fans?

Arsenal – 40/1

Unai Emery had a solid first season at the Emirates Stadium last season, but the Spaniard will be demanding an improvement this time around. The Gunners, who are 40/1 to win the league, finished just one point outside of the top four last term. Will the London side be able to break into the Champions League positions in the 2019-20 campaign?

Petr Cech, Aaron Ramsey and Danny Welbeck have departed the club, but the board are working tirelessly to bring in new blood. Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been on Arsenal’s radar all summer, and the winger would certainly improve the team. The Gunners will no doubt face another fight for a place in the top four of the Premier League this season, and they are currently priced at 5/4 to get back into the Champions League for the 2020-21 season.

Top Four Finish

Last Updated: 9th July 2019
Champions League Logo on Carpet
katatonia82, Bigstockphoto

The race for the top four in the Premier League this season is also set to be thrilling. Man City and Liverpool are the strong favourites, with Tottenham, Chelsea, Man United and Arsenal left to battle it out for the two remaining spots.

However, one or two clubs could have something to say about that, with the likes of Wolverhampton Wanderers and Everton hoping to bridge the gap this season. Last term, sixth-placed Man United finished nine points above Wolves, who finished their first season back in the Premier League in a very creditable seventh position.

Wolverhampton Wanderers – 16/1

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Wolves were a breath of fresh air in the top tier last year. The 2017-18 Championship winners took to the Premier League like a duck to water, picking up 16 wins in their debut season back in the top flight.

Wolves beat Chelsea, Tottenham, Man United and Arsenal last season. They also reached the semi-final of the FA Cup, beating Liverpool along the way. Of course, breaking into the top four will be a tall order, but Wanderers will fancy their chances of causing a few more upsets this season. The Midlands club are priced at 16/1 to finish into the top four.

Everton – 16/1

It was an indifferent first season for Marco Silva at Goodison Park, but the former Watford boss guided the Toffees to five wins from their last eight league matches, losing only one of those in the process.

Everton have a very talented squad, which Silva will be hoping to add to before the season gets underway. Like Wolves, the Toffees are also available at 16/1 to break into the top four this season. The Merseysiders finished eighth last year, winning 15, losing 14 and drawing nine. Will they fare better this time?

Leicester City – 25/1

Since taking over at the King Power Stadium back in March, Brendan Rodgers has been a big hit with the Leicester supporters. The former Liverpool boss had a terrific time in Scotland with Celtic, winning everything on offer. The Irishman will now be looking to make an impact in the Premier League with Leicester.

The Foxes have had a turbulent last few seasons since their stunning title-winning campaign back in 2016. With Ayoze Perez arriving for £30m, and a deal to sign the excellent Youri Tielemans in place, Leicester could be set to have a good season under Rodgers.

West Ham United – 66/1

You never quite know what you are going to get with West Ham United. The Hammers kicked off last season with four successive defeats, so to finish in 10th place was quite an achievement in the end.

In Manuel Pellegrini, West Ham have an extremely experienced manager. Pablo Fornals has arrived on a £24m deal from Villarreal, while Roberto has moved from Espanyol on a free. In the other direction, the likes of Marko Arnautovic, Andy Carroll, Samir Nasri, Lucas Perez and Adrian have moved on. The Irons are available at the big price of 66/1 to finish in the top four this season. Although those are eye-opening odds, backing them to break into the top six at 12/1 is perhaps a more realistic option.

Who Will be Relegated From The Premier League?

Last Updated: 9th July 2019
Dejected Footballer Sat on Pitch

Huddersfield Town, Fulham and Cardiff City were the three teams relegated from the Premier League last season. Norwich, Sheffield United and Aston Villa have taken their places. The Blades and the Canaries are odds-on for the drop, with Villa currently priced at 9/4. Meanwhile, the likes of Burnley, Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United could be involved in another relegation scrap. Which three teams will be relegated from the Premier League in the 2019-20 season?

Sheffield United – 4/6

Sheffield United finished runners-up in the Championship last season, finishing with 89 points to their name. Chris Wilder has done a phenomenal job over the past few seasons, guiding the club to two promotions during his time at Bramall Lane. Although the Blades have progressed year after year, surviving in the Premier League will be a tough task for the Yorkshire club.

United are currently the favourites at 4/6 to drop straight back down to the Championship. Luke Freeman and Phil Jagielka are shrewd signings, but the Blades look pretty blunt in attack. If things start to go wrong early doors, it could be a long season for Wilder and Sheffield United in the top tier.

Norwich City – 10/11

Norwich surprised many by winning the Championship last season. After a slow start, the pressure was starting to mount on Daniel Farke. However, his players quickly got their act together, as the Canaries went on to accumulate 94 points, winning 27 of their 46 league matches.

Teemu Pukki, who scored 29 Championship goals last term, has recently signed a new and improved three-year contract at Carrow Road. Meanwhile, the club have also brought in Daniel Adshead, Josip Drmic, Aidan Fitzpatrick and Ralf Fahrmann. City will have little time to settle into their new surroundings, though, with Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City all to come in the early weeks of the season. Last term’s Championship champions are priced at 10/11 to be relegated.

Burnley – 6/4

Burnley spent a large chunk of last season in and around the bottom three, which was a real surprise considering that they finished seventh to secure Europa League football in the 2017-18 campaign. Nevertheless, Sean Dyche’s men did enough to survive in the end, finishing in 15th place on 40 points.

After a relatively poor year, the Lancashire outfit will be hoping for a far better season this time around. However, the club have not done an awful lot of business this summer, which is why they are priced at 6/4 for the drop. The Clarets, who start their season with a home game against Southampton, could face another season of struggle.

Brighton & Hove Albion – 15/8

Brighton survived by the skin of their teeth last season, with Cardiff finishing just two points behind. Despite doing a fine job during his time at the Amex Stadium, Chris Hughton was relieved of his duties shortly after the end of the campaign. Graham Potter, who guided Swansea City to tenth spot in the Championship last term, is the new man in charge of the Seagulls.

Leandro Trossard has arrived in a £15m deal from Genk, but Brighton have made no other major signings as of yet. Albion have survived two seasons in the Premier League since gaining promotion, but the third year could be their toughest yet. At odds of 15/8, Brighton could be worth backing to be relegated this season.

Aston Villa – 9/4

Out of the three promoted clubs, Aston Villa are the least fancied to go down, with 9/4 being their price for relegation. The Villans have vast experience in the Premier League as a club, and they will feel that they definitely belong in the top flight. Last season, Dean Smith guided Villa back to the big time as Championship play-off winners, as they beat Derby 2-1 in the final at Wembley Stadium in May.

Aston Villa have been very busy in the transfer market, with several players coming in and a whole host of players heading out. Matt Target has arrived in an £11m deal from Southampton, while the Midlands club have also spent big on Wesley from Club Brugge (£22m). Meanwhile, Anwar El Ghazi, Jota and Kortney Hause have signed deals at Villa Park, with defender Tyrone Mings expected to make the move in a £25m deal from Bournemouth. Villa should be just fine this season.

Newcastle United – 10/3

One of the biggest stories to come out of the Premier League this summer was Rafa Benitez’s departure from St James’ Park. The Spaniard was hugely popular among the Newcastle United fans, but the former Liverpool and Chelsea manager decided to move on to China.

The sale of Perez to Leicester was another big blow for the Newcastle supporters. Even with Benitez in charge, United struggled at times last season, although they did end up finishing 11 points above the drop zone in 13th place. At this moment in time, Newcastle have yet to bring in a new manager. Because of that, 10/3 for the Magpies to be relegated looks a very decent price.

Premier League Top Goalscorer

Last Updated: 9th July 2019
Footballer Harry Kane Celebrating Scoring a Goal
vverve, Bigstockphoto

The race for the Golden Boot was incredible last year, with Liverpool duo Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane as well as Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all scoring 22 goals each to share the award. Those three – along with the usual suspects of Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero – are among the favourites again.

Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) – 9/2

Tottenham’s main man missed out on the Golden Boot last season after suffering a few injury setbacks. Despite missing a large chunk of the season, Kane still managed to net 17 goals. The England captain finished top scorer in 2016 and 2017, and the Spurs hitman will want his prize back. Kane is currently the bookies’ favourite at odds of 9/2.

Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) - 5/1

Mo Salah scored 32 Premier League goals during his debut season with Liverpool in 2017-18. Even though he netted 10 fewer last term, the Egyptian ace was still the joint top scorer of the PL with 22 goals to his name. Although his tally was still excellent, Salah will be gunning for plenty more goals this time around. Odds of 5/1 represents a very tempting price.

Sergio Aguero (Manchester City) - 5/1

Man City’s Aguero helped himself to 21 Premier League goals last term, missing out on a share of the Golden Boot by just one goal. The Argentine ace has been a prolific goalscorer since arriving at the Etihad Stadium back in 2011, scoring 164 league goals for the Citizens. A previous PL Golden Boot winner back in 2015, Aguero is available at 5/1 to finish at the top of the pile again this season. If he can stay fit, you can guarantee that City’s No 10 will score a hatful of goals for the champions.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal) – 9/1

Aubameyang finished his first full season at Arsenal with 22 Premier League goals. The Gabon international struck up an excellent partnership with Alexandre Lacazette, with the pair notching 35 league goals between them. Aubameyang has been a fruitful scorer throughout his career, and 9/1 is a very generous offer.

Sadio Mane (Liverpool) – 10/1

Mane had a stunning season for Liverpool last term, going on to score 22 Premier League goals as the Reds finished runners-up. He also netted four times in the Champions League. The Senegal star is more than capable of having another superb season in front of goal. At the time of writing, you can get Mane at the generous odds of 10/1 to win the Golden Boot.

Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City) – 33/1

Raheem Sterling (10/1) and Lacazette (14/1) are also among the frontrunners, but Gabriel Jesus at 33/1 could be the dark horse. It’s easy to forget that the Brazilian is still only 22, as his calmness in front of goal is outstanding. Jesus and Aguero will have their own personal battle to be Guardiola’s number one striker, but City’s new No 9 will make the most of his opportunities when called upon.

When the concept of a breakaway league from that of the English Football League came about in 1992, the name was decided on the FA Premier League. The organisation as actually set up as their own limited company and as a result, started attracting potential sponsorship deals to essentially do what they like with the name.

The first two years that the Premier League was founded, there were no sponsorship deals in place. It wasn’t until 1993 when the first deal was struck, with that of Carling, changing the name to the Carling Premier League.

Carling remained as the headline sponsor for the league from 1993 through until 2001. Whilst the naming rights were put for sale again, it was widely thought that the company wanted to move away from the promotion of alcohol and into something a little more mainstream.

A deal was then struck with that of Barclays bank, who used their sister company, Barclaycard, to promote the league from 2001 through to 2004, before then becoming the FA Barclays Premiership from 2004 to 2007 and later then Barclays Premier League from 2007 to 2016.

In a turn of events in 2016, the FA announced that they would not be seeking a lead sponsor for the brand and instead reverting to simply the Premier League. The idea was to create a clean brand moving forward, much as they do in American sports with the likes of the NFL, NHL and NBA.

Season Format

The league is made up of 20 teams in total and each team play each other both home and away. This will mean that each team will take part in 38 games throughout a single campaign. The games will be run for 90 minutes and 3 points will be awarded for a win, 1 for a draw and none for a loss.

The league is set up in a format that promotes both champions and relegated teams. The winners are that of the team that finishes at the top of the league after 38 games. There will be 3 of the lowest ranked teams in the league that will then be relegated to the Championship. If points are tied, the goal difference will be the deciding factor to sort which teams finish where.

European Qualification

There are several places up for grabs that allow teams from within the Premier League qualifying for the following seasons Champions League and Europa Leagues tournaments. The top four places in the league will qualify for the Champions League. It used to be that 4th place would need to play a play-off game to get their spot, but this has been changed for the 2018 season and onwards.

Qualification for the Europa League is a little less straight forward. In total, the Premier League are allocated 3 slots into the tournament; one for the team finishing 5th, one for the winners of the FA Cup and one for the winners of the League Cup.

But, if teams that have won either of the cups finish within the Champions League places already, then these places will be allocated to 6th and 7th in the league if needed.

Transfer Window

The transfer window is one of the most exciting times for Premier League teams. There are two windows that run from July 1st through to August 31st, then another in the new year, from 1st January to that of the 31st of January. Note that these dates may be extended or reduced by a day or so should they fall on a weekend.

This is the only time that teams are able to make changes to their squads for the whole year. If transfers are made outside of this timeframe, then the players can’t legally move to that club until the window reopens. It’s also worth noting that the Premier League often come down hard on clubs who fail to adhere to this by sorting deals in principle before the window opens, which is commonly referred to as “tapping up”.

Prize Money

As we’ve stated already, the money that is within the Premier League is quite staggering at the minute. To give you an idea of the gulf between the Championship and the Premier League, West Brom, who finished bottom of the Premier League in 2017/18 season, took over almost £94million from their dividend that is distributed by the Premier League. Wolves, who won the Championship in the same year, took a little over £7million.

The prizemoney is broken down into 5 categories:

  • Equal share of payments to each club from sponsors and TV money
  • Facility Fees
  • Merit payment
  • Overseas TV
  • Central commercial

For example, in the 2017/18 season £35,301,989 was paid out to all clubs as part of the equal share of payments that they receive. The facility fees are based on the number of times that they are shown live on UK television. So, the more games they have, the more money they will be entitled for this.

The merit payment is based on where each team finishes in the league. This has the biggest gulf in payments of any of the sectors. For example, Man City who won the league in 2017/18, were paid out over £38million in merit payments, whereas West Brom, who finished bottom, were paid just £1.9million.

Overseas TV money is the money that is brought in from broadcasting rights around the world and central commercial are from sponsorship deals done for the Premier League. These two are both equal payments for all teams throughout the league, something that many of the bigger clubs are actually lobbying against, due to them offering more appeal than some teams.

Key Stats

  • Manchester United are the most decorated team in the Premier League era, with 13 title wins to their name
  • Manchester united have the most consecutive Premier League wins with 3, running from 1998/99 season through to 2000/01 and the 2006/07 season through to 2008/09.
  • The biggest winning Premier League margin is that of 19 points, by Manchester City in 2017/18 season
  • The smallest winning Premier League margin is also Manchester City, winning the 2011/12 season by just goal difference of +8 goals
  • There have only been 6 ever-present teams since the league started in 1992. They are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur
  • Only 3 teams have avoided relegation from the Premier League after being bottom at Christmas. West Bromwich Albion (2004/05), Sunderland (2013/14) and Leicester City (2014/15)
  • Manchester City have scored the most Premier League goals in a single season in 2017/18, with 106 goals in total
  • The fewest was that of Derby County, with just 20 goals in the 2007/08 season
  • The highest scoring match came about in 2007, when Portsmouth beat reading 7-4.
  • The most decorated player in the Premier League history is that of Ryan Giggs, with 13 league titles, all for Manchester United.
  • Brian Dene scored the first ever Premier League goal playing for Sheffield United against Manchester United on 15th August, 1992.
  • Alan Shearer has scored the most Premier League goals, with 260
  • Gareth Barry has the most Premier League appearances, with 635
  • Ryan Giggs has the most Premier League assists, with 162

The History of the Premier League

The foundations of the Premier League were set about in 1992 by that of Greg Dyke. At the time Dyke was a managing director for a London television studio and it was his idea that a breakaway league, running as a separate entity to that of the Football League, could be massively beneficial for the elite clubs.

After many meetings, Dyke was eventually able to get the likes of the “Big Five” on board, which included Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton and Arsenal, who then agreed to form this breakaway league.

It was Dyke’s vision to get more games of the bigger clubs on national television, which would in turn allow the league to make more money through sponsorship deals and advertising. But, the whole deal was based on the pretences that the Football Association were willing to back to the deal. As they already held a rather frosty relationship with the English Football League, the backing was granted.

The first of the TV deals was headhunted by that of Dyke and his team, before securing a five-year deal with BskyB and a highlights package with BBC, for a fee reported to be worth around £304million.

The format of the league remained the same in that the teams that were in the old 1st Division were essentially invited into the Premier League, initially with 22 teams, before this number reduced to the 20 teams that we see today.