Premier League Betting Tips

The Premier League is one of the biggest football leagues in the world. It commands a massive global audience and whilst is based out of England, it’s one of the most diverse, with players from over 80 countries being represented within the league at some point.

The league has been the pinnacle of the English game since 1992 and has thrived in that time. The most recent television deal, said to be worth over £1.7billion, underlines just how popular the Premier League is and as a result, attracts the best players in the world.

Who Will Win The Premier League?

Last Updated: 5th February 2019
Premier LEague Trophy
UK in Japan- FCO, flickr (cropped)

For most of the 2018/19 Premier League campaign, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City and Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have been embroiled in a fascinating tussle for the title. You can add Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham Hotspur into the mix too, as Spurs have never let the top two get too far out of sight.

At the time of writing, there’s virtually nothing to split Liverpool and Man City in the betting, with Tottenham breathing down their necks. City are priced at 5/6 and Liverpool are available at 11/10, while Spurs are a long shot at 16/1. With just a few months of the season left to play, will the Premier League trophy be staying in Manchester or heading to Merseyside – or maybe, just maybe, London?

Manchester City – 5/6

Last season’s Premier League champions kicked off the defence of their crown this term in terrific fashion, winning 13 and drawing two of their opening 15. However, after a disastrous December, which saw City lose three times in the league, the champions handed the initiative to Liverpool. The Citizens’ first league defeat of the season came at Stamford Bridge in early December, with defeats at home to Crystal Palace and away at Leicester City following.

However, write Man City off at your own peril. The Manchester club were arguably the best team the Premier League has even since last season, and they started this campaign like a house on fire. Liverpool may have the slight edge with the points, but Guardiola’s City have all the experienced in the world when it comes to winning titles. Moreover, with the Reds stumbling of late the momentum has swung back in favour of Pep’s troops and despite some tough fixtures they are worthy favourites in our eyes. At the decent odds of 5/6, the champions are worth backing to retain to their title.

Liverpool – 11/10

Liverpool have had an outstanding season so far, taking charge of the title race over Christmas as they churned out win after win. With Man City slipping up on more than once occasion over the festive period, the Reds kept their heads down, extending their lead at the top to as much as seven points at one stage, although their lead has since been cut. The Reds have never won a Premier League title, having to watch the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal dominate the Premier League era. However, they will never get a better chance, and Jurgen Klopp’s men are priced at just 11/10 to win their first league title since 1990.

That’s a long, long wait for a club with Liverpool’s history and the pressure is sure to get to both their fans, the players and the manager. Jurgen Klopp has won lots of trophies, including league titles, but his sides have a terrible record in finals. With the pressure cranked up on the run-in, how will he cope?

Klopp has certainly done well in the transfer market over the past 18 months or so. This season the Reds did all of their transfer business in the summer, bringing in the likes of Alisson Becker and Xherdan Shaqiri, who have both been big hits with the fans. Their success so far this season has been built on a mean defence, with the new stopper and Virgil van Dijk (signed in December 2017) being rocks at the back. After 25 Premier League matches, Liverpool have shipped just 15 league goals.

The Reds will fight all the way in the title race this season but we fancy they will come up just short. Their midfield is too workmanlike and that means that if their front three have an off day they can struggle to break teams down. We expect them to draw too many games between now and May and see City just pipping them in the final reckoning.

Tottenham Hotspur – 16/1

Despite all of the talk of this season’s title race being a two-horse race between Liverpool and Man City, Tottenham have slowly but surely gone about their business. At this moment in time, the Lilywhites still have the Reds and Citizens in their sights, with Spurs just four points away from top spot.

Tottenham have lost a fair few games in the top flight this season, already being beaten six times. However, they have still yet to draw a single match, winning 19 of their 25 fixtures so far – no side has won more often. With a top manager at the helm, several world class players in the squad and the move to their fantastic new stadium on the horizon, big things lie ahead for the London club. If they can keep in the hunt until Harry Kane returns from injury they could end the season strongly but that’s a big if.

Ultimately, the Lilywhites are not quite on the same level as the current top two, with a top four finish (1/8) the most likely outcome for Mauricio’s men. Still, as improbable as it seems, the big odds of 16/1 for Tottenham to win the league are still worth having a look at, especially if you think the London outfit can stay under the radar and creep up on the top two.

Top Four Finish

Last Updated: 5th February 2019
Champions League Logo on Carpet
katatonia82, Bigstockphoto

As always, the race for UEFA Champions League places in the Premier League is captivating to watch. With Liverpool, Man City and Tottenham looking nailed on for a top four finish, the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal are left to battle it out for the last remaining spot. Get ready for what promises to be another thrilling fight for the top four.

Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal have all had their struggles at different times this season, but all three are more than capable of finishing in fourth place. Obviously not all together at the same time! At present, Maurizio Sarri’s Blues have the slight edge, but United are currently flourishing under temporary boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Arsenal are outsiders, but a strong finish from Unai Emery’s men could see them leapfrog Chelsea and Man Utd.

Chelsea – 8/13

It’s been a testing first season in English football for former Napoli boss Sarri, who has not quite had the impact that the Chelsea fans were hoping for so far. He started better than expected and all the talk was of “Sarri-ball” revolutionising the Premier League. Following that superb start, the Blues would have been looking to challenge the likes of Liverpool, Man City and Tottenham for the title before a ball was kicked this season.

But the London club are well off the pace, with huge odds of 500/1 for Chelsea to win the league telling you all you need to know. The January arrival of Gonzalo Higuain could give Sarri’s side the edge in the battle for the top four, but it will no doubt go down to the wire. You can get the Blues at just 8/13 to finish in the top four. Higuain netted a fine brace on his league debut and if he fires then those odds will look cracking value.

Manchester United – 11/8

When Solskjaer took over at Old Trafford from the sacked Jose Mourinho in mid-December, United were a staggering 11 points behind fourth placed Chelsea. Fast forward six weeks, the Red Devils now trail the Blues by just two points. Ahead of this weekend’s clash with Fulham at Craven Cottage, United are unbeaten in 10 league and cup games under Solskjaer, winning nine and drawing one. The Manchester club have come on leaps and bounds since Jose Mourinho’s sacking, with the United players noticeably stepping up their performance levels. Man Utd are currently available at 11/8 for a top four finish and that’s sure to tempt those who feel momentum and morale favour them.

Arsenal – 3/1

This campaign was always going to be difficult for Emery, who took over from Arsene Wenger last summer. However, after a strong first half to the season, the Gunners have every chance of finishing in the Champions League places. Having kicked off their campaign with back-to-back defeats to Man City and Chelsea, the Londoners went on a superb 22-game unbeaten run in all competitions, which proved what Emery’s boys are capable of. The Gunners may have tailed off of late, but they have had several bright moments over the course of the season. 3/1 for a top four finish is certainly a tempting price, although the Gunners’ current defensive issues probably mean they will miss out.

Who Will be Relegated From The Premier League?

Last Updated: 5th February 2019
Dejected Footballer Sat on Pitch

The relegation battle in the Premier League this season is shaping up to be one of the most thrilling dogfights we have ever seen. No less than eight clubs – possibly one or two more – are in a relegation scrap, but which three will go down? Huddersfield Town already look doomed while Fulham have left themselves with a huge mountain to climb. Above that pair, however, the likes of Cardiff City, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United are still in trouble while Crystal Palace and Brighton & Hove Albion are not out of the woods just yet.

Huddersfield Town – 1/100

Huddersfield parted company with David Wagner a few weeks back, with Jan Siewert taking over. The Terriers are cut adrift at the bottom, currently 13 points from safety. To make matters worse, the teams above them have been picking up points here and there while Town have not won a game since beating Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0 at Molineux all the way back in November. That’s a long, long time without a win and confidence is really low at the Kirklees Stadium.

With matches still to come against the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and Man Utd, Huddersfield can start preparing for life back in the EFL Championship. Siewert’s side are 1/100 to be relegated this term while you can get them at 25/1 to pull off the greatest of Premier League escapes. We suggest the former is better value than the latter!

Fulham – 2/9

Having got them up as Championship play-off winners last term, Slavisa Jokanovic was relieved of his duties as Fulham boss after a poor start to this season. The club moved very quickly to bring in former Leicester City boss Claudio Ranieri, although the Italian has guided the Whites to just three league wins so far.

Ryan Babel arrived from Besiktas in January, but it could be too little, too late as far as Fulham’s survival chances are concerned. Moreover, their squad already appeared overloaded with attacking players and short at the back, so we’re not convinced the former Liverpool man was exactly what they needed. The Cottagers no doubt have a very talented group of players and a top manager, but the Londoners have given themselves just too much work to do. Fulham are priced at 2/9 for the drop and that seems about right given they are seven points from safety at the time of writing.

Cardiff City – 1/2

Cardiff defied the odds last season by gaining promotion to the Premier League, and the Bluebirds will be hoping to defy them again by staying in the top flight this term. In Neil Warnock, the Welsh side have one of the most experienced managers in English football but keeping Cardiff in the Premier League will be his greatest achievement yet.

Last season’s Championship runners-up have been competitive for the majority of the campaign but maintaining those standards will take some doing in the second half of the campaign. Cardiff are currently third favourites for the drop behind Huddersfield and Fulham, with the Bluebirds priced at 1/2, despite potentially being just one win away from 15th place.

Burnley – 2/1

Burnley had a remarkable season in the Premier League last term, winning 14 of their 38 games to finish in seventh place. This term, however, things have been far different for Sean Dyche’s Clarets. After 25 matches this time around, Burnley have only managed to secure six wins, with only the bottom two (Huddersfield and Fulham) claiming fewer victories up until now. The January acquisition of Peter Crouch from Stoke City could turn out to be a shrewd one, but the Lancashire club are still bang in trouble. Dyche’s Burnley are currently available at 2/1 to drop down to the Championship at the end of the season.

Newcastle United – 8/1

Newcastle United finally did some big business in January, with the Magpies breaking their transfer record with the £20m signing of Miguel Almiron from Atlanta. The fact that their record had previously stood at £16m since signing Michael Owen from Real Madrid tells us much about how the club has been run. The Magpies also brought in Antonio Barreca from Monaco but it remains to be seen how much of an impact this duo will have.

Newcastle secured a 10th place finish on their return to the Premier League last season. Although things have been a lot tougher for Rafa Benitez’s men this time around, United have moved away from the drop zone with some vital victories of late, but the Magpies are still in danger. If you fancy Benitez’s boys to plunge back into the second tier, check out the tempting odds of 8/1, however for our money their manager is simply too good for that to happen.

Southampton – 10/1

Since arriving at St Mary’s back in December, Ralph Hasenhuttl has certainly steadied the ship at Southampton. However, the Saints are just a couple of bad results away from being drawn back into the bottom three. Southampton have some big games against their relegation rivals coming up, and we will know a lot more about their survival chances after those matches. However, Hasenhuttl’s men are one of the in-form teams around the bottom at present. Southampton survived by the skin of their teeth last season, but they should have more than enough to comfortably stay up this time around. You can get the Saints to be relegated at the big odds of 10/1.

Brighton & Hove Albion – 16/1

Brighton & Hove Albion have never really looked like relegation candidates this season, but Chris Hughton’s men are sailing a little too close to the wind for their liking. The Seagulls have struggled for wins since the turn of the year, currently finding themselves just five points above 18th placed Cardiff at the time of writing. Nevertheless, Brighton should have more than enough quality to survive the drop this season, with the Seagulls priced at 16/1 for relegation. Hughton has done an admirable job at the Amex Stadium in recent years, and we fully expect Brighton to be a Premier League club yet again next season, with their home record set to be enough to keep them up.

Crystal Palace – 20/1

Like Hughton’s Brighton, Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace are unlikely to go down. Of course, a bad run could see them sucked back into trouble, but the Eagles have more than enough about them to keep themselves afloat. Palace have kicked on since their famous 3-2 win over Man City at the Etihad Stadium over Christmas, and the signing of Michy Batshuayi on loan from Chelsea was a huge coup by the club. The south London outfit have several other options in attack, with the likes of Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend – among others – In good form. Hodgson’s side should be just fine, but if you do fancy them for relegation, check out the big odds of 20/1.

Premier League Top Goalscorer

Last Updated: 5th February 2019
Footballer Harry Kane Celebrating Scoring a Goal
vverve, Bigstockphoto

The race for the Premier League’s Golden Boot is set to be as intriguing as ever. Last year’s winner Mohamed Salah is the bookies’ favourite, with the likes of Sergio Aguero and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not too far behind. Do not rule out Harry Kane, either, who usually finishes his campaign with a flurry of goals for Spurs. Salah marked his returned to England by netting an incredible 32 league goals at Liverpool last season. Kane was runner-up with 30 while Aguero netted 21 and Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy scored 20. Can anyone stop Salah from retaining his Premier League Golden Boot in 2019?

Mohamed Salah – Evens

Not many people would have envisaged the impact that Mo Salah has had a Liverpool since joining from Roma in the summer of 2017. It’s easy to forget that the Egyptian had a spell in the Premier League with Chelsea a few years back. However, Salah looks like a completely different player to the one who struggled at Stamford Bridge, as the striker has once again been scoring goals for fun for the Reds this term. Although he’s not been quite as prolific as last season, Liverpool’s No. 11 leads the way at the top of the scoring charts and is favourite to retain the boot. Salah is available at evens to finish top scorer in the Premier League for the second season running and with goals on the board that looks about fair.

Sergio Aguero – 3/1

Kun Aguero is Man City’s all-time top goalscorer, netting a staggering 219 times – with 157 of those coming in the league – since joining the club back in 2011. The Argentina international won the Premier League Golden Boot back in 2015, scoring 26 times in 33 games. The City striker has started 2019 in red-hot form, which is why he is second favourite to top the pile come May. The Argentinian ace is currently in third place, two goals behind Liverpool’s Salah. Aguero could be worth having a punt on at the tempting odds of 3/1, especially if our prediction of City pipping the Reds to the title proves accurate.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – 10/3

During his first full season with Arsenal, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has helped himself to plenty of goals, even though Emery has used him out wide on a number of occasions this term. After scoring in a 2-1 home win over Cardiff back in late January, Aubameyang became the fastest Arsenal player to reach 25 Premier League goals, doing so in just 37 appearances. Considering how many goals Thierry Henry went on to score at Arsenal, that is quite some feat by the Gabon international. Aubameyang is certainly the Gunners’ main man these days, and the supporters will be hoping that his goals can fire them into the top four come the end of the season. Arsenal’s No. 14 is priced at 10/3.

Harry Kane – 14/1

Kane has spent a decent amount of time on the sidelines with injury of late, but the Tottenham man has still helped himself to 14 Premier League goals. The England captain just loves scoring, netting 122 PL goals for Spurs since breaking on to the scene, winning the Golden Boot in 2016 and 2017 along the way before claiming that accolade at the 2018 World Cup as well. Kane will be hoping to return from injury sooner rather than later so he can have a say in the title race and the battle to be top scorer. After finishing runner-up to Salah with a superb 30 goals last season, Kane would love to win his crown back this time around. You can get the Spurs hitman at the whopping odds of 14/1.

Eden Hazard – 33/1

Despite not being an out-and-out striker, Chelsea’s Eden Hazard is up there with the Premier League’s deadliest marksmen when it comes to goals this season. The Belgium skipper is having one of his best campaigns in a Blues shirt, scoring an excellent 10 goals so far from a wide position. With Higuain arriving at Stamford Bridge to help him out in January, Hazard could be the dark horse for the Golden Boot this season, with the bookies pricing him at 33/1. Whether the Belgian decides to stay at the Bridge beyond this year remains to be seen, but Hazard will no doubt go down as one of Chelsea’s best ever players.

Marcus Rashford – 66/1

Since bursting on to the scene, Marcus Rashford is getting better and better with age and experience. Rashford has thrived under fellow (former) striker Solskjaer of late, enjoying an extended run in the side and repaying his manager’s faith with several important goals. Rashford has scored nine times in the Premier League this season, so the huge odds of 66/1 for the United star to finish top scorer are generous, especially as the 21-year-old has scored six times since Ole’s arrival already. Winning the Golden Boot this season may be a tall order, but the young England striker has the world at his feet at Old Trafford.

When the concept of a breakaway league from that of the English Football League came about in 1992, the name was decided on the FA Premier League. The organisation as actually set up as their own limited company and as a result, started attracting potential sponsorship deals to essentially do what they like with the name.

The first two years that the Premier League was founded, there were no sponsorship deals in place. It wasn’t until 1993 when the first deal was struck, with that of Carling, changing the name to the Carling Premier League.

Carling remained as the headline sponsor for the league from 1993 through until 2001. Whilst the naming rights were put for sale again, it was widely thought that the company wanted to move away from the promotion of alcohol and into something a little more mainstream.

A deal was then struck with that of Barclays bank, who used their sister company, Barclaycard, to promote the league from 2001 through to 2004, before then becoming the FA Barclays Premiership from 2004 to 2007 and later then Barclays Premier League from 2007 to 2016.

In a turn of events in 2016, the FA announced that they would not be seeking a lead sponsor for the brand and instead reverting to simply the Premier League. The idea was to create a clean brand moving forward, much as they do in American sports with the likes of the NFL, NHL and NBA.

Season Format

The league is made up of 20 teams in total and each team play each other both home and away. This will mean that each team will take part in 38 games throughout a single campaign. The games will be run for 90 minutes and 3 points will be awarded for a win, 1 for a draw and none for a loss.

The league is set up in a format that promotes both champions and relegated teams. The winners are that of the team that finishes at the top of the league after 38 games. There will be 3 of the lowest ranked teams in the league that will then be relegated to the Championship. If points are tied, the goal difference will be the deciding factor to sort which teams finish where.

European Qualification

There are several places up for grabs that allow teams from within the Premier League qualifying for the following seasons Champions League and Europa Leagues tournaments. The top four places in the league will qualify for the Champions League. It used to be that 4th place would need to play a play-off game to get their spot, but this has been changed for the 2018 season and onwards.

Qualification for the Europa League is a little less straight forward. In total, the Premier League are allocated 3 slots into the tournament; one for the team finishing 5th, one for the winners of the FA Cup and one for the winners of the League Cup.

But, if teams that have won either of the cups finish within the Champions League places already, then these places will be allocated to 6th and 7th in the league if needed.

Transfer Window

The transfer window is one of the most exciting times for Premier League teams. There are two windows that run from July 1st through to August 31st, then another in the new year, from 1st January to that of the 31st of January. Note that these dates may be extended or reduced by a day or so should they fall on a weekend.

This is the only time that teams are able to make changes to their squads for the whole year. If transfers are made outside of this timeframe, then the players can’t legally move to that club until the window reopens. It’s also worth noting that the Premier League often come down hard on clubs who fail to adhere to this by sorting deals in principle before the window opens, which is commonly referred to as “tapping up”.

Prize Money

As we’ve stated already, the money that is within the Premier League is quite staggering at the minute. To give you an idea of the gulf between the Championship and the Premier League, West Brom, who finished bottom of the Premier League in 2017/18 season, took over almost £94million from their dividend that is distributed by the Premier League. Wolves, who won the Championship in the same year, took a little over £7million.

The prizemoney is broken down into 5 categories:

  • Equal share of payments to each club from sponsors and TV money
  • Facility Fees
  • Merit payment
  • Overseas TV
  • Central commercial

For example, in the 2017/18 season £35,301,989 was paid out to all clubs as part of the equal share of payments that they receive. The facility fees are based on the number of times that they are shown live on UK television. So, the more games they have, the more money they will be entitled for this.

The merit payment is based on where each team finishes in the league. This has the biggest gulf in payments of any of the sectors. For example, Man City who won the league in 2017/18, were paid out over £38million in merit payments, whereas West Brom, who finished bottom, were paid just £1.9million.

Overseas TV money is the money that is brought in from broadcasting rights around the world and central commercial are from sponsorship deals done for the Premier League. These two are both equal payments for all teams throughout the league, something that many of the bigger clubs are actually lobbying against, due to them offering more appeal than some teams.

Key Stats

  • Manchester United are the most decorated team in the Premier League era, with 13 title wins to their name
  • Manchester united have the most consecutive Premier League wins with 3, running from 1998/99 season through to 2000/01 and the 2006/07 season through to 2008/09.
  • The biggest winning Premier League margin is that of 19 points, by Manchester City in 2017/18 season
  • The smallest winning Premier League margin is also Manchester City, winning the 2011/12 season by just goal difference of +8 goals
  • There have only been 6 ever-present teams since the league started in 1992. They are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur
  • Only 3 teams have avoided relegation from the Premier League after being bottom at Christmas. West Bromwich Albion (2004/05), Sunderland (2013/14) and Leicester City (2014/15)
  • Manchester City have scored the most Premier League goals in a single season in 2017/18, with 106 goals in total
  • The fewest was that of Derby County, with just 20 goals in the 2007/08 season
  • The highest scoring match came about in 2007, when Portsmouth beat reading 7-4.
  • The most decorated player in the Premier League history is that of Ryan Giggs, with 13 league titles, all for Manchester United.
  • Brian Dene scored the first ever Premier League goal playing for Sheffield United against Manchester United on 15th August, 1992.
  • Alan Shearer has scored the most Premier League goals, with 260
  • Gareth Barry has the most Premier League appearances, with 635
  • Ryan Giggs has the most Premier League assists, with 162

The History of the Premier League

The foundations of the Premier League were set about in 1992 by that of Greg Dyke. At the time Dyke was a managing director for a London television studio and it was his idea that a breakaway league, running as a separate entity to that of the Football League, could be massively beneficial for the elite clubs.

After many meetings, Dyke was eventually able to get the likes of the “Big Five” on board, which included Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton and Arsenal, who then agreed to form this breakaway league.

It was Dyke’s vision to get more games of the bigger clubs on national television, which would in turn allow the league to make more money through sponsorship deals and advertising. But, the whole deal was based on the pretences that the Football Association were willing to back to the deal. As they already held a rather frosty relationship with the English Football League, the backing was granted.

The first of the TV deals was headhunted by that of Dyke and his team, before securing a five-year deal with BskyB and a highlights package with BBC, for a fee reported to be worth around £304million.

The format of the league remained the same in that the teams that were in the old 1st Division were essentially invited into the Premier League, initially with 22 teams, before this number reduced to the 20 teams that we see today.